India’s southwest monsoon has slipped into another weak phase, and the numbers are already showing it. As of July 13, the nationwide rainfall deficit has widened once again after a brief spell of widespread showers had briefly narrowed the gap. Meteorologists say the reprieve was short-lived, and large parts of central, western and northwestern India are now bracing for several more days of below-normal rainfall.

But the story isn’t the same everywhere. While the mainland dries out, Assam and the rest of the Northeast are staring down a very different forecast one that includes heavy to very heavy rain in the days ahead.

Why the Monsoon Suddenly Lost Steam

The slowdown isn’t random. According to meteorologists, it’s being driven by a combination of large-scale atmospheric factors working against India’s rain-bearing systems.

The first culprit is a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO — a moving pulse of cloud and rainfall activity that circles the globe near the equator over roughly 30 to 60 days. When the MJO is strong and positioned favorably, it energizes monsoon systems, especially over the Bay of Bengal. Right now, it’s weak, and that’s translating into fewer rain-bearing low-pressure systems forming in the Bay — the very systems that usually feed moisture into central and northern India.

The second factor is bigger and more persistent: El Niño. Conditions in the equatorial Pacific are strengthening, and El Niño has a well-documented history of suppressing the Indian monsoon. It disrupts the normal pattern of moisture transport and cloud development across large swathes of the subcontinent, which is exactly what’s playing out now across western and central India.

Together, these two forces have created an unfavorable window for monsoon activity — one that’s expected to persist over the next few days before conditions potentially shift again.

Assam Is the Exception, Not the Rule

Here’s the part that matters most if you’re in the Northeast: this weak monsoon phase does not mean a dry spell for Assam.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been clear on this distinction. Even as rainfall remains subdued across western and central India, Assam and neighbouring northeastern states are forecast to keep receiving substantial rain. Heavy rain alerts are currently active for several districts across the region, and authorities expect that pattern to hold in the near term.

This isn’t unusual for the Northeast, which often operates on its own monsoon rhythm thanks to its geography — squeezed between the Himalayas and the Bay of Bengal, the region tends to pull in moisture even when broader all-India monsoon activity slackens. So while headlines about a “weak monsoon” might suggest a dry pause everywhere, Assam’s on-ground reality is the opposite: continued vigilance against heavy downpours, potential waterlogging, and the flooding risks that come with sustained heavy rainfall in low-lying and riverine areas.

For residents and local authorities in Assam, the takeaway is straightforward — this is not a moment to let the guard down. Heavy rain alerts remain active, and the same weather system dynamics that are starving the rest of India of rainfall are, paradoxically, not applying the brakes in the Northeast.

What’s Driving the Difference

The reason Assam is being spared the drying trend comes down to where rain-bearing systems are still forming. Even with a weak MJO limiting the Bay of Bengal’s usual output of low-pressure systems, the Northeast sits close enough to persistent moisture sources — and benefits from orographic lift as monsoon winds strike the hills of Meghalaya, Assam and neighbouring states — that rainfall can continue even when the broader monsoon engine sputters elsewhere.

This is a pattern worth understanding for anyone trying to make sense of conflicting monsoon news this week: a “weak monsoon phase” is a national or regional average, not a uniform condition. Assam’s heavy rain forecast and central India’s rainfall deficit can both be true at the same time.

When Will Things Change for the Rest of India?

There’s a light at the end of the tunnel for the regions currently missing out on rain. Forecast models suggest that monsoon conditions could improve during the second half of July, as fresh low-pressure systems are expected to develop over the Bay of Bengal. If those systems form as anticipated, they should help revive rainfall activity over eastern, central and northern India — potentially narrowing the deficit that’s widened again this week.

Until then, though, farmers, water managers and city planners across the affected regions will need to factor in a continued dry stretch. A widening rainfall deficit this early in the season can have knock-on effects for kharif crop sowing, reservoir levels, and water availability later in the year — all reasons why the IMD and independent meteorologists are watching the Bay of Bengal closely for any sign of the next system taking shape.

The Bottom Line

India’s monsoon is going through a genuine rough patch, driven by a weak MJO and a strengthening El Niño that together are cutting off the supply of rain-bearing systems to central, western and northwestern India. The nationwide deficit has widened again as of July 13, and forecasters don’t expect meaningful relief until fresh systems develop over the Bay of Bengal later this month.

But Assam and the Northeast are the clear exception. Heavy to very heavy rain remains in the forecast, and heavy rain alerts are still active across several districts. For a region that regularly deals with monsoon flooding, that means the current weak monsoon phase gripping the rest of the country is, if anything, a reason for continued caution rather than relief.

As the second half of July approaches, all eyes will be on the Bay of Bengal — where the next low-pressure system could determine whether India’s monsoon deficit starts to close, or widens further still.

sanjoy gorh

Sanjoy Gorh – Founder & Editor, FinBuzz India
Sanjoy Gorh is the founder and editor of FinBuzz India (finbuzzindia.com), an independent digital news platform delivering accurate, clear, and timely news to readers across Assam, Northeast India, and beyond.
Driven by a deep passion for digital journalism, Sanjoy launched FinBuzz India with a clear mission: to give grassroots stories the attention they deserve and bring local voices to a national stage. Hailing from Assam, he brings hands-on, on-ground experience in news reporting, content creation, and digital media management.
His editorial focus spans Assam local news, Northeast India developments, government schemes and exam updates, finance, technology and AI, business and startups, sports, and national affairs — always with an emphasis on making important topics simple, relevant, and accessible to everyday readers.
At the heart of his work lies an unwavering commitment to factual, unbiased reporting. Sanjoy believes journalism’s greatest responsibility is building reader trust, and every story published on FinBuzz India reflects that belief.
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